Rikicin Rasha da Ukraine ya haifar da hauhawar farashin iskar gas da methanol

Rikicin Rasha da Ukraine da ke kara ta'azzara ya yi mummunar barna a kasuwannin duniya.Kasashe da dama na kara tsaurara takunkumin da aka kakabawa Rasha a fannin hada-hadar kudi kuma takunkumin na iya kaiwa ga bangaren makamashi.Sakamakon haka, farashin danyen mai da iskar gas ya yi tashin gwauron zabi a kwanan nan.A ranar 3 ga Maris, makomar danyen mai na Brent ya haura zuwa dala 116/bbl, sabon girma tun daga Satumba 2013;da danyen mai na WTI na gaba ya ci gaba zuwa $113/bbl, mai daɗi shekaru goma.Farashin iskar gas na Turai ya karu da kashi 60 cikin 100 a ranar 2 ga Maris, wanda ya kai matsayi mafi girma.

Tun daga shekarar 2021, farashin iskar gas na Turai ya hauhawa sosai, inda ya tashi daga 19.58 EUR/MWh a farkon shekara zuwa 180.68 EUR/MWh kamar na Dec 21, 2021.

Farashin ya tashi ne sakamakon karancin kayayyaki.Kashi 90% na iskar gas da ake samarwa a Turai ya dogara ne kan shigo da kaya daga kasashen waje, kuma Rasha ce mafi girma a asalin samar da iskar gas zuwa Turai.A cikin 2020, EU ta shigo da kusan biliyan 152.65 na iskar gas daga Rasha, 38% na jimillar shigo da kayayyaki;kuma iskar gas da ta samo asali daga Rasha ya kai kusan kashi 30% na yawan amfani da shi.

Yayin da rikicin Rasha da Ukraine ke kara ta'azzara, a makon jiya Jamus ta dakatar da amincewa da bututun iskar gas na Nord Stream 2.Shugaban Amurka Biden ya kuma ba da sanarwar sanya takunkumi kan aikin bututun mai na Nord Stream 2.Bugu da kari, an lalata wasu bututun mai a Ukraine tun bayan rikicin.A sakamakon haka, damuwa game da samar da iskar gas ya ta'azzara, wanda ya haifar da hauhawar farashin.

Matakan methanol da ke wajen China duk sun dogara ne akan iskar gas a matsayin kayan abinci.Tun daga watan Yuni 2021, wasu tsire-tsire na methanol a Jamus da Netherlands sun ba da sanarwar dakatar da samarwa saboda farashin yanayi ya yi yawa wanda ya sake ninka sau da yawa daga matakin bara.

Methanol tsire-tsire a Turai

A halin yanzu, ƙarfin methanol ya kai ton miliyan 4.355 / shekara a Turai, wanda ke lissafin 2.7% na jimlar duniya.Bukatar methanol ta kai kusan tan miliyan 9 a Turai a cikin 2021 kuma sama da kashi 50% na wadatar methanol sun dogara da shigo da kaya.Manyan tushen da ke ba da gudummawar methanol zuwa Turai sune Gabas ta Tsakiya, Arewacin Amurka da Rasha (wanda ke lissafin kashi 18% na shigo da methanol na Turai).

Abubuwan da ake samu na Methanol a Rasha ya kai ton miliyan 3 a shekara, ton miliyan 1.5 na fitar da shi zuwa Turai.Idan aka dakatar da samar da methanol daga Rasha, kasuwar Turai na iya fuskantar asarar kayayyaki na 120-130kt a kowane wata.Kuma idan aka rushe samar da methanol a Rasha, zai shafi samar da methanol na duniya.

Kwanan nan, tare da sanya takunkumi, kasuwancin methanol a Turai ya fara aiki tare da FOB Rotterdam methanol farashin yana haɓaka sosai, sama da 12% akan Maris 2.

Tare da rashin yiwuwar warware rikicin cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, kasuwar Turai za ta iya fuskantar matsaloli daga ƙarancin iskar gas a matsakaici da tsayi.Tsirar methanol a Turai na iya yin tasiri ta hanyar araha tare da hauhawar farashin iskar gas.Ana sa ran farashin methanol na FOB Rotterdam zai ci gaba da hauhawa, kuma karin kaya na iya kwararowa daga Gabas ta Tsakiya da Arewacin Amurka zuwa Turai da zarar yanke hukunci ya bazu.Sakamakon haka, dakon methanol da ba na Iran ba zuwa China zai ragu.Bugu da kari, tare da bude shari'ar, matakin sake fitar da methanol na kasar Sin zuwa Turai na iya karuwa.Ana sa ran samar da methanol a kasar Sin a baya zai wadata, amma lamarin na iya canzawa.

Koyaya, tare da hauhawar farashin methanol, tsire-tsire na MTO na ƙasa suna fama da babbar asara a China.Sabili da haka, buƙatar methanol na iya yin tasiri kuma ana iya rage ƙimar farashin methanol.