Shin kasuwar ruwan kwantena tana fuskantar sabon rikicin sarkar samar da kayayyaki?

Wasu kafafen yada labarai sun yi nuni da cewa rikicin da ke tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine ya yi matukar kawo cikas ga jigilar kayayyaki a tekun Black Sea tare da yin tasiri mai yawa kan harkokin sufuri na kasa da kasa da kuma hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki a duniya.An kiyasta cewa har yanzu daruruwan jiragen ruwa na makale a cikin teku sakamakon rikicin.Rikicin ya wuce gona da iri game da matsin lamba na aiki kan masana'antar jigilar kayayyaki ta duniya, inda kusan ma'aikatan ruwa na Rasha da na Ukraine 60,000 suka makale a tashoshin jiragen ruwa da kuma cikin teku saboda rikicin.Masu binciken sun ce ma’aikatan jirgin na Ukraine sun fi mayar da hankali ne a cikin motocin dakon mai da kuma jiragen ruwa masu guba, galibi suna hidima ga masu jiragen ruwa na Turai, kuma suna rike da manyan mukamai kamar kyaftin da kwamishina, tare da karancin canji, wanda kuma ya sanya masu jirgin ke da wahala samun wadanda za su maye gurbinsu. .

 

Mutanen da ke cikin masana'antar sun nuna cewa ma'aikatan jirgin daga Ukraine da Rasha sun kai kashi 17% na ma'aikatan jirgin ruwa miliyan 1.9 na duniya.kuma a halin yanzu akwai akalla jiragen ruwa na Rasha da na Ukraine 60,000 da suka makale a cikin teku ko a tashar jiragen ruwa, wanda babu shakka ya kasance babban matsin lamba kan kasuwar jigilar kayayyaki.

 

Wasu 'yan kasuwar cikin gida na kasar Sin sun kuma yi nazari kan cewa, manyan ma'aikatan jirgin na Maersk da Hapag Lloyd sun fito ne daga Rasha da Ukraine, yayin da za a dauki ma'aikata na tilas da ma'aikatan ajiya a Ukraine kuma mai yiwuwa ba za su iya shiga kasuwar jigilar kayayyaki cikin gajeren lokaci ba.Shin gajeriyar ma'aikata za ta tura kayan aikin teku?Matsayin ma'aikatan Ukraine da na Rasha suna da wuya a maye gurbinsu.Wasu 'yan kasuwar har ma sun yi tunanin cewa tasirin ya kasance iri ɗaya da cutar COVID-19 ga masana'antar jigilar kayayyaki, saboda yawancin ma'aikatan ruwa na Yukren da Rasha suna da manyan mukamai kamar kyaftin, kwamishina, babban injiniya, da sauransu, wanda zai zama babba. damuwa ga ma'aikatan jirgin.Wasu masu binciken sun jaddada cewa barkewar cutar da cunkoson tashar jiragen ruwa a karkashin hanyar Amurka, sun kawo cikas ga karfin jigilar ruwa. Karancin ma'aikatan jirgin saboda yakin da ake yi tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine na iya zama wani sauyin da ba a iya sarrafa shi ba.

 

An soke wasu umarniKayayyakin kaya daga Asiya zuwa Turai da Amurka sun koma baya.Shin kasuwar ruwan kwantena za ta "ci gaba da al'ada"?

Wasu masana sun nuna cewa jigilar kayayyaki daga Asiya zuwa Turai / Amurka sun nuna alamun rage kwanan nan.Rikicin Rasha da Ukraine ya rage samar da albarkatun kasa da kuma rage bukatar.Kasuwar ruwa na iya ci gaba da al'ada tun da wuri.

 

A cewar wasu rahotannin kafofin watsa labaru na jigilar kayayyaki na kasashen waje, an soke odar kayayyaki masu rahusa da manyan kube a Asiya.Tun bayan barkewar cutar, farashin jigilar kayayyaki ya yi tashin gwauron zabi sau 8-10, kuma ba a samun riba a sayar da irin wadannan kayayyaki.Ma'aikacin lambu a London ya bayyana cewa kamfanin ba zai iya canja wurin matsin lamba na karuwar farashin 30% zuwa kayan China ba kuma ya yanke shawarar soke umarnin.

 

 

Hanyar Turai

Jirgin dakon kaya daga Asiya zuwa Arewacin Turai ya fara raguwa, wanda ya dore a lokacin hutun sabuwar shekara amma ya yi laushi kwanan nan.Dangane da Indexididdigar Freightos Baltic, jigilar kaya na 40GP (FEU) ya ragu da 4.5% zuwa $13585 makon da ya gabata.Yaduwar cutar ta kasance mai tsanani a Turai, kuma sabbin cututtukan yau da kullun suna ci gaba da ƙaruwa.Haɗe tare da haɗarin geopolitical, farfadowar tattalin arziƙin nan gaba na iya samun hangen nesa.Bukatar kayan bukatu na yau da kullun da kayan aikin likita sun ci gaba da girma.Matsakaicin yawan amfani da kujeru daga tashar jiragen ruwa ta Shanghai zuwa manyan tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Turai har yanzu yana kusa da 100%, haka ma hakan ya yi akan hanyar Bahar Rum.

Hanyar Arewacin Amurka

Sabbin cututtukan yau da kullun na cutar ta COVID-19 sun yi girma a Amurka.Haushin farashin kayayyaki ya yi yawa a Amurka lokacin da farashin kayayyaki ya tashi kwanan nan.Farfadowar tattalin arziki na gaba na iya zama rashin tsare-tsare marasa tsari.Bukatar sufuri ta ci gaba da kyau, tare da tsayayyen wadata da matsayin buƙatu.Matsakaicin yawan amfani da kujeru a cikin W/C Amurka Sabis da Sabis na E/C na Amurka har yanzu yana kusa da 100% a tashar jiragen ruwa na Shanghai.

 

Daukakin wasu kwantena daga Asiya zuwa Arewacin Amurka shima ya nufi kudu.Dangane da bayanai daga S&P Platts, jigilar kaya daga Arewacin Asiya zuwa Tekun Gabashin Amurka ya kasance a $11,000/FEU kuma na Arewacin Asiya zuwa Yammacin Tekun Yamma na Amurka yana kan $9,300/FEU.Wasu masu tura gaba har yanzu sun ba da $15,000/FEU a ƙarƙashin hanyar Yammacin Amurka, amma umarni sun ragu.An soke yin ajiyar wasu jiragen ruwa na tashi daga kasar Sin kuma sararin jigilar kayayyaki ya karu sosai.

 

Koyaya, bisa ma'aunin Freightos Baltic Index, haɓakar jigilar kayayyaki daga Asiya zuwa Arewacin Amurka ya ci gaba.Misali, a cewar FBX, jigilar kayayyaki daga Asiya zuwa gabar yammacin Amurka, kowane kwantena mai tsawon 40ft, ya karu da kashi 4% a wata zuwa $16,353 a makon da ya gabata, kuma na gabar tekun Amurka ta Gabas ya karu da kashi 8% a cikin Maris, wato. jigilar kaya na kowane akwati 40ft akan $18,432.

 

Shin cunkoso a Yammacin Amurka ya inganta?Da wuri in faɗi.

Cunkoson tashoshin jiragen ruwa a Yammacin Amurka ya nuna alamun sauƙi.Adadin jiragen ruwa da ke dakon tsayawa ya ragu da rabi daga na watan Janairu kuma sarrafa kwantena kuma ya karu.Sai dai masu bincike sun yi gargadin cewa hakan na iya zama na wucin gadi ne kawai.

 

Alan McCorkle, Babban Babban Jami'in Tashar Yusen, da sauransu sun ce kwanan nan, an yi jigilar tashoshi na kwantena cikin sauri da sauri zuwa wuraren da ke cikin kasa, musamman saboda rufe masana'anta da kuma sannu a hankali shigo da kayayyaki a Asiya yayin sabuwar shekara.Bugu da kari, raguwar yawan ma'aikatan da ba sa zuwa tashar jiragen ruwa da suka kamu da cutar ya kuma taimaka wajen hanzarta kayan aiki.

 

An inganta cunkoso a tashoshin jiragen ruwa a Kudancin California.Adadin jiragen ruwa da ke jiran tsayawa daga 109 a watan Janairu zuwa 48 a ranar 6 ga Maris, mafi ƙanƙanta tun Satumbar bara.Kafin barkewar cutar, jiragen ruwa kaɗan ne za su jira su tsaya.A lokaci guda, adadin shigo da kaya shima ya ragu a Amurka.Kaya mai shigowa daga tashar jiragen ruwa na Los Angeles da Long Beach ya faɗi ƙasan watanni 18 a cikin Disamba 2021 kuma ya ƙaru da 1.8% kawai a cikin Janairu 2022. Lokacin jira na kwantena shima ya ragu daga mafi girman lokaci.

 

Koyaya, matsayi na gaba na iya kasancewa mai zafi yayin da ƙarar jigilar kaya na iya ci gaba da ƙaruwa a cikin watanni masu zuwa.Bisa ga Teku-Intelligence, matsakaicin adadin shigo da mako-mako na Yammacin Amurka zai kasance 20% sama da na daidai wannan lokacin a bara a cikin watanni 3 masu zuwa.Alan Murphy, Shugaban Hukumar Leken Asiri ta teku, ya ce a watan Afrilu, yawan jiragen ruwa da ke cunkoso a tashoshin jiragen ruwa na iya komawa 100-105.